Finally, for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis hit Saskatchewan, we have seen some sort of glimmer at the end of a long dark tunnel.
While we may still be a long ways away from being able to post up in our favourite watering holes with our friends and talk about the times we lived in, wearing sweat pants for weeks at a time, the past week has shown that Saskatchewan’s measures, lead by chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab, are paying some, even if they are mild, dividends.
There were multiple days in the past week where Saskatchewan saw more recoveries than new cases, a first since we heard about the virus hitting the province on March 12.
The week of April 6-10 saw a rise of 31 confirmed cases, followed by 55 people who recovered from the virus. While Saskatchewan’s numbers remain low in comparison to the rest of Canada, the people of Saskatchewan have come together and made that happen.
Understanding that this virus is bigger than all of us and making the necessary life changes to save everyone around us, is the key to beating this virus the people of this province are taking seriously.
Like Premier Scott Moe has said many times over the last few weeks, everyone who is doing their part with the restrictions laid out by the province, is saving lives.
To date, Saskatchewan has three deaths from COVID-19. Loss of life is never something anyone wants to hear about, but in comparison with the rest of the nation, our numbers are miniscule.
Saskatchewan is only second to Nova Scotia, who has reported two deaths as of April 9.
All of the positives mentioned above could change overnight. By the time you are reading this, we could have severely gone the other direction. But, for once during this pandemic, we should try and focus on some positives.
Saskatchewan people have a reason to remain scared of COVID-19. We are not out of the woods yet. We are possibly far from it.
But remaining hopeful is paramount. The Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) released their response plan models this week, and it struck fear in many to say the least.
The models showed three different scenarios based on how many people one could infect, and what those numbers reflect. The SHA reiterated these models are “what if scenarios.”
According to the SHA, in a high-range estimate, 4,265 COVID-19 patients will require to be in acute care hospital simultaneously. Of those hospitalized, 1,280 COVID-19 patients will be in the ICU with 90-95 per cent requiring ventilation.
On the low side, the SHA presentation said at peak, 390 patients will require to be in an acute care hospital simultaneously. Of those hospitalized, 120 patients will be in the ICU with 90-95 per cent requiring ventilation.
The presentation said on the high end of the model, the province could see up to 408,000 total cases with 215 ICU admissions daily and a cumulative total of 8,370 deaths. On the low end, 153,000 total cases with 20 ICU admissions daily and up to 3,075 deaths.
According to the SHA, the current demand for daily ICU across Saskatchewan is 57 beds with 98 total capacity. For acute care, there is a daily demand of 1,396 with a total capacity of 2,433.
In addition, the SHA currently has 450 ventilators available to meet COVID-19 model demands for low and mid-range scenarios. The planned capacity ventilator requirement of 860 creates a gap of 410, but the SHA added there are confirmed orders for 200 with 100 expected n the next two to three weeks.
These numbers show if a surge were to hit Saskatchewan, our healthcare system would rip at the seams. The number of ventilators needed in the province to combat the event of a massive surge are just not there. That is disappointing and scary.
The SHA said in a media release sent out on April 9, they have “approximately one month or more supply of most essential personal protective equipment items.”
Those items include surgical masks, N95 respirators and gloves. They added they “continue to purchase and aggressively pursue supply” which doesn’t mean much when the entire world is looking for the same things.
In the words of Nobel Peace Prize winner Desmond Tutu, “Hope is being able to see that there is a light despite all of the darkness.”
All we can do is continue to do what we are doing. Tell everyone you know, if you haven’t already, they are the key to getting us out of a situation our health system clearly isn’t prepared to handle.
